USD/JPY Price Forecast: Rises, yet struggles at 148.00 (2024)

  • USD/JPY briefly clears 148.00 before reversing, with RSI suggesting seller dominance.
  • A drop below 146.27 could trigger further losses, targeting 145.44 and 144.28.
  • If USD/JPY reclaims 147.79, resistance levels are at 148.00 and potentially 149.77, with the 200-DMA at 151.46 as a longer-term target.

The Japanese Yen fails to gain traction late in the North American session versus the Greenback as the USD/JPY rises from last Friday's daily low of 146.62 and trades at 147.28, up by 0.47%.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The USD/JPY is downward biased despite the uptick that saw the pair clear the 148.00 figure and hit a six-day high at 148.22 before reversing its course and tumbling below the Tenkan-Sen at 147.79.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bearish, hinting that momentum favors sellers.

The USD/JPY could extend its losses if the pair slumps past the August 9 low of 146.27. Once cleared, the next demand zone would be the August 8 low of 145.44, followed by the August 7 bottom at 144.28. Up next would be the last cycle low at 141.69.

Conversely, if USD/JPY clears the Tenkan-Sen at 147.79, this will clear the path to August’s 12 peaks of 148.00. On further strength, the pair could rally toward the Sekou Span A at 149.77 before testing the 200-day moving average (DMA) at 151.46.

USD/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart

Japanese Yen FAQs

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation.

The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen.

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

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USD/JPY Price Forecast: Rises, yet struggles at 148.00 (2024)

FAQs

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Rises, yet struggles at 148.00? ›

USD/JPY briefly clears 148.00 before reversing, with RSI suggesting seller dominance. A drop below 146.27 could trigger further losses, targeting 145.44 and 144.28.

What is the prediction for USD vs JPY? ›

Outlook in USD/JPY remains bearish with 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 141.67 at 149.41 intact and intraday bias stays neutral. Below 145.42 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 141.67. Break there will resume the fall from 161.94 to 140.25 support next.

What does it mean when USD JPY goes up? ›

USD/JPY represents the currency exchange rate for the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY currency pair has traditionally had a close correlation with U.S. Treasuries. When interest rates head higher, Treasury bond prices go down, which lifts the U.S. dollar, strengthening USD/JPY prices.

What will USD to JPY be in 2024? ›

USD/JPY FX rate, up until Aug 15, 2024

The amount of Japanese yen that could be bought with USD kept increasing since September 2020. As of August 15, 2024, the exchange rate reached approximately 147.25 Japanese yen.

What is the future prediction of the Yen? ›

The Japanese Yen is expected to trade at 144.49 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 148.51 in 12 months time.

Is USD JPY bullish or bearish today? ›

USD/JPY Technical Overview

The daily chart analysis shows that the pair is positioned slightly below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting a short-term bearish trend.

What is the best time to trade USD JPY? ›

The best time to trade USD/JPY in forex is during the Asian trading session (between 23:00 to 08:00 GMT) when both the US and Japanese markets are open. This is because there is increased volatility and liquidity during this time, which can lead to greater opportunities for profits.

Will yen get weaker or stronger? ›

Despite having a baseline view of yen appreciating to around 135 against the USD in the next 24 months, we think the currency will stay on the weaker side for now given it is more dependent on the US rate movement.

What is the Usdjpy strategy? ›

USDJPY Carry Trade Strategy

This involves borrowing to buy another currency to profit from their interest rate differential. For instance, if the US dollar has a higher interest rate than the Yen, a trader might take a short position on USDJPY — that is, selling the US Dollar and buying the Japanese Yen.

Is GBPJPY bullish or bearish? ›

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Outlook remains bearish with 38.2% retracement of 208.09 to 180.00 at 190.73 intact.

What is the dollar to Yen strength? ›

Live Currency Rates
CurrencyRateChange
USD / JPY147.635
GBP / USD1.29541
USD / CHF0.865646
USD / CAD1.36751
4 more rows

Is USDJPY a good pair to trade? ›

The USD/JPY currency pair is highly liquid and frequently traded, with both the US dollar and Japanese yen seen as safe-haven currencies, which traders focus on due to their significant role in global forex reserves and their impact on market sentiment.

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